Unless someone comes up with about $20 million in the next two hours — as I write this late on Wednesday evening — it looks like the Indiegogo campaign to raise $32 million fails.
Much will be made of this over the next several days in the FOSS press. But the marketing value aside, it’s hard to see how this campaign’s failure can be claimed as a victory for Ubuntu here, despite whatever spin the corporate masters at Canonical might produce as PR going forward. While it may have captured the imagination and while it may have inspired some to contribute, in the final analysis it failed — none of the money in the campaign will go to Canonical since it didn’t make its goal, and it begs the question of what happens to all those orders going forward.
Regardless, defeats are defeats. What remains to be seen is whether this is Canonical/Ubuntu’s Waterloo or its Alamo.
Those of you who didn’t sleep through History class will get the reference. Napoleon got throttled and was exiled after the battle of Waterloo in 1815, never to recover the greatness he once achieved. Meanwhile, 21 years later and a hemisphere away, 189 Texans took on a Mexican invading force of 1,800 at a mission near San Antonio — all the Texans died, but it inspired a remaining force to defeat the Mexicans a month later in San Jacinto.
It’s simple, really.
This defeat becomes a Waterloo if Canonical packs in this project and walks away. A speaker from Canonical a few weeks ago said he thought that, in his personal opinion, the company would drop the phone if the goal was not made.
But this defeat becomes an Alamo if Canonical rallies behind the Ubuntu Edge project despite the setback, and delivers the Ubuntu Edge next year as promised regardless of the Indiegogo campaign’s results.
Time will tell.
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This blog, and all other blogs by Larry the Free Software Guy, Larry the CrunchBang Guy and Larry Cafiero, are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs CC BY-NC-ND license. In short, this license allows others to download this work and share it with others as long as they credit me as the author, but others can’t change it in any way or use it commercially.
(Larry Cafiero is one of the founders of the Lindependence Project and develops business software at Redwood Digital Research, a consultancy that provides FOSS solutions in the small business and home office environment.)